91福利

Climate sensitivity usually refers to the equilibrium change in the annual mean global surface temperature following a doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. The observed change in global mean temperature is used as one benchmark for climate change and is central to the reporting of the IPCC. However, our perception of climate change and its impacts are local, both geographically, and in terms of which part of the distribution of temperatures (which quantile) is changing fastest.

This colloquium will focus on how observational data can be analysed to inform us about how climate has changed locally since the middle of the last century, and what the uncertainties are. One can find a clear signal of large change, a clear signal of little change, or no clear signal at all, depending upon geographical location and quantile. Analysis of the E-OBS gridded dataset across Europe suggests that in those locations where the response is greatest, the hottest summer days in the temperature distribution have seen changes of at least 2 °C, over four times the global mean change over the same period. In winter the coldest nights are warming fastest.