91福利

There will be two 1hr presentations, titles are as follows:

i) Exchange Rates and the 鈥楩ed Information Effect - Emanuele Savini

ii) An Emotional Mr. Market: Media Emotions and the Time-Varying Price of Risk - Andrea Guerrieri D'Amati

Title: Disadvantage and Distorted Beliefs (joint with P Dalton and S Ghosal).

Abstract: We develop a dynamic theory of how structural disadvantage shapes outcomes through the interaction of cognitive constraints and psychological determinants of efforts. We relate locus of control, self-efficacy, and grit to perceived returns to effort, and study aspirations in an extension. Individuals differ in exogenous circumstances, such as class, caste, race, gender, or inherited wealth, which affect the payoff or likelihood of success from effort. Beliefs about returns to effort evolve only through effort itself. Disadvantage raises the belief threshold required to justify effort, making disadvantaged individuals more likely to stop trying before learning their true returns. External locus of control, low self-efficacy, and weak grit can therefore emerge endogenously. We distinguish standard traps, which arise even for farsighted agents, from behavioral traps, which arise under partial myopia. Cash transfers, subsidies, and access policies lower effort thresholds; psychological, role-model, and grit interventions sustain beliefs.

Title: The Persistence of Female Political Power in Africa (by Siwan Anderson, Sophia Du Plessis, Sahar Parsa, and James A. Robinson)

Abstract: Research on female political representation has tended to overlook the traditional role of women as leaders across many societies. Our study aims to address this gap by investigating the enduring influence of historical female political leadership on contemporary formal political representation in Africa. We test for this persistence by compiling two original datasets: one detailing female political leadership in precolonial societies and another on current female representation in local elections. Our findings indicate that ethnic groups historically allowing women in leadership roles in politics do tend to have a higher proportion of elected female representatives in today's formal local political institutions. We also observe that institutional, rather than economic, factors significantly shape the traditional political influence of women. Moreover, in accordance with historical accounts, we uncover evidence of a reversal of female political power due to institutional changes enforced by colonial powers.