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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTAMP:20260609T191412Z
DTSTART;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20260528T140000
DTEND;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20260528T150000
SUMMARY:CRiSM colloquium - Nicholas Polson
TZID:Europe/London
UID:20260528-8ac672c69c8a6b40019c8f08bc590b26@warwick.ac.uk
CREATED:20260507T114340Z
DESCRIPTION:Chess has long been a proving ground for AI and statistical r
 easoning. This talk takes a Bayesian look at two recent flashpoints in e
 lite play. The centerpiece is joint work with Shiva Maharaj (Chess Ed) a
 nd Vadim Sokolov (George Mason) on the 2023 Kramnik–Nakamura controversy
 \, in which former world champion Vladimir Kramnik publicly questioned H
 ikaru Nakamura’s 45.5 out of 46 streak in 3+0 online blitz on chess.com.
  Combining Anand’s prior on the prevalence of online cheating with the s
 treak evidence\, we compute a posterior of roughly 99.6% that Nakamura d
 id not cheat. The case study illustrates two classic fallacies — the Pro
 secutor’s Fallacy on Kramnik’s side\, and a misuse of cherry-picking tha
 t violates the likelihood principle on Nakamura’s side — and connects to
  the broader literature on fraud detection and streaks in sports. I will
  then survey related work with the same group: a Brownian-motion model f
 or the probability that Magnus Carlsen reaches an Elo of 2900 and its im
 plications for the K-factor\; a neural-network valuation of (piece\, squ
 are) combinations\; and a comparison of Stockfish and Leela Chess Zero a
 s competing paradigms — handcrafted search versus deep reinforcement lea
 rning — through Plaskett’s endgame study.
LOCATION:MB0.07
CATEGORIES:Colloquium,CRiSM
LAST-MODIFIED:20260507T114340Z
ORGANIZER;CN=Kathrin Schutrumpf:
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTAMP:20260609T191412Z
DTSTART;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20260610T140000
DTEND;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20260610T150000
SUMMARY:CRiSM colloquium - Bin Yu
TZID:Europe/London
UID:20260610-8ac672c69c8a6b40019c8f143d1e0cba@warwick.ac.uk
CREATED:20260224T095634Z
DESCRIPTION:tbc
LOCATION:B3.03
URL:/fac/sci/statistics/news/crismcolloquium/
ATTACH:/fac/sci/statistics/news/crismcolloquium/
CATEGORIES:Colloquium,CRiSM
LAST-MODIFIED:20260224T095634Z
ORGANIZER;CN=Kathrin Schutrumpf:
END:VEVENT
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